Bryce Harper to Philadelphia Phillies

Bryce Harper is going to be a Philadelphia Philly for the rest of his career!

Contract Details

$330 million over 13 years (age 26- 39) at $25.4 million AAV

- full no-trade clause

- no deferrals

- no opt-outs

-2019: $10M (plus $20M signing bonus)

2020: $26M

2021: $26M

2022: $26M

2023: $26M

2024: $26M

2025: $26M

2026: $26M

2027: $26M

2028: $26M

2029: $22M

2030: $22M

2031: $22M

Harper's Perspective

Let's take a look at his track record since he broke into the league at the age of 19:

2012: .270/340/.477 with .352 wOBA & 121 wRC+ (4.4 fWAR -NL ROY)

2013: .274/368/486 with .371 wOBA & 137 wRC+ (4.1 fWAR - All Star)

2014: .273/344/423 with .338 wOBA & 115 wRC+ (1.6 fWAR)

2015: .330/460/649 with .461 wOBA & 197 wRC+ (9.3 fWAR - NL MVP)

2016: .243/373/.441 with .343 wOBA & 111 wRC+ (3 fWAR - All Star)

2017: .319/.413/.595 with .416 wOBA & 155 wRC+ (4.8 fWAR - All Star)

2018: .249/.393/.496 with .376 wOBA & 135 wRC+ (3.5 fWAR - All Star)

Averaging 4.5 wins above replacement per year, Bryce Harper would be the best player of this generation if it wasn't for Mike Trout (averages 9 WAR per year, pending free agent in 2021!).

It took nearly 4 months, but Harper was able to get his well-deserved record-breaking contract, topping Machado's 10 year/$300 million and Giancarlo Stanton's 13 year/ $325 million contracts.

Philadelphia Phillies' Perspective

Here's what the Phillies' lineup will look like with Bryce Harper in it:

1. Andrew Mccutchen (2019 Projected fWAR: 2.8)

2. Jean Segura (2019 Projected fWAR: 2.7)

3. Bryce Harper (2019 Projected fWAR: 4.8 )

4. Rhys Hoskins (2019 Projected fWAR: 3.3 )

5. J.T Realmuto (2019 Projected fWAR: 4.7)

6. Maikel Franco (2019 Projected fWAR: 1.4 )

7. Odubel Herrera (2019 Projected fWAR: 2.6 )

8. Cesar Hernandez (2019 Projected fWAR: 2.3)

9. Pitcher

& the Phillies' starting rotation:

1. Aaron Nola (2019 Projected fWAR: 4.5)

2. Nick Pivetta (2019 Projected fWAR: 2)

3. Vince Velasquez (2019 Projected fWAR: 1.8)

4. Zach Eflin (2019 Projected fWAR: 1.5)

5. Jake Arrieta (2019 Projected fWAR: 1.1)

With an offensive juggernaut, a solid pitching rotation led by Aaron Nola, and a decent bullpen with the addition of David Robertson, the Phillies looks destined for a deep run in the 2019 playoffs and beyond.

Financial Perspective

Out of 934 MLB batters who have logged a qualified number of PA's since 2000, only 16 (1.71%) batters have achieved a fWAR greater than or equal to Harper's fWAR through their age 26 season. I have graphed those 16 batters' progression through their pro career. If Harper follows the average line graphed above, he will generate 50.655 fWAR in his 13 year contract with the Phillies. 1 fWAR is roughly equal to $8 million in this market, so a contract worth $330 million over 13 years will be valued at a combined fWAR of 41.25.

While this contract shatters records money-wise, it's still a big win for the Phillies, as Harper is projected to pay off the contract and contribute a surplus of 9.4 fWAR, which is equivalent to his fWAR from the MVP season in 2015.

By signing Harper for a longer term with a lower AAV, their 2019 payroll of $189 million is still well below the competitive balance tax line ($206 million).

In 2021, with Arrieta (the only bad contract, really) off the books, the Phillies payroll is projected to be back down to $173 million, leaving room for a $33 million AAV player (Mike Trout?!?!).

Verdict

This is a win-win situation for both Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies.

Bryce Harper gets the long-term commitment and record breaking contracted he wanted in a 13 year, $330 million deal and the Phillies get a generational talent with a full no-trade clause and no opt-outs.